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Peter: 10/16 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events

By - - The Boock Report & Weekly Data Summaries on October 16, 2015 12:36 PM Follow-Ups Peter Initial

Positives:

  1. Initial jobless claims fell to 255k, 15k less than expected and down from 262k last week. This level is the same as a print in July which matched the lowest level since November 1973. The 4 week average fell to 265k from 267k and continuing claims fell by 50k to a fresh 15 year low.
  2. UoM consumer confidence in October rebounded to 92.1 from 87.2 in September. This was 3 pts better than expected and gets back what it lost last month as the August print was 91.9. It also coincides with the stock market rebound over the past 3 weeks. Current conditions rose 5.5 pts and Expectations were higher by 4.5 pts. One year inflation expectations fell one tenth to 2.7% which is basically steady with the year to date average of 2.8%.
  3. Industrial production while soft (but in line) in September as it fell .2% m/o/m, it was off a higher than expected base as August was revised up to a drop of .1% instead of .4% initially. Manufacturing production fell for a 2nd month but one tenth less than expected and August was revised up by one tenth. The production of auto’s/parts continue to the main standout as it rose .2% m/o/m and 9.4% y/o/y. Manufacturing ex this though is up just .8% y/o/y as mining (oil, gas, industrial metals) production is lower by almost 6% vs last year and fell 2% alone in September vs August.
  4. Headline CPI in September fell .2% m/o/m and is flat y/o/y helping to raise real wages as energy prices are down 18.4% y/o/y. Apparel prices also fell, making it more affordable to buy clothes. The NFIB said in their release, “normally, low inflation is good news, but in our upside down world, the monetary authority wants more of it, not less.”
  5. Headline PPI in September fell .5% m/o/m headline and .3% core vs the estimates of down .2% and up .1% respectively. The y/o/y headline drop is 1.1% with a core rate of gain of .8%.  Energy prices fell 5.9%. Food prices were down by .8%. Prices for final demand goods less food and energy were flat. Final demand for services were down by .4%, the biggest drop since February where “almost half of the drop can be traced to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation and warehousing.”
  6. The NFIB small business optimism index for September rose a touch to 96.1 from 95.9 in August. It is up for a 3rd month and moved closer to its year to date average of 96.4 and is slightly above the average seen last year of 95.2. The NFIB curmudgeon and Chief Economist said “Small business optimism continues to be stagnant, which is consistent with the expected economic growth of about 2.5 percent. The percent of owners citing the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Most Important Business Problem increased and is now third on the list behind taxes and regulations. This is the highest reading since 2007 and suggests that employers will continue to face wage pressure in order to attract and keep good employees.”
  7. September CPI for the eurozone rose .2% m/o/m but was down .1% y/o/y again due to lower energy prices (down 8.9% y/o/y). The core rate was higher by .9% y/o/y for the 2nd straight month and is just one tenth from matching the highest level since August ’13 as services inflation held steady at 1.2% for a 3rd month.
  8. UK wage gains remained well above inflation as weekly earnings y/o/y for the 3 months ended August rose 2.8% ex bonus, thus bringing REAL wage gains to 2.9%. The nominal wage gain over the past 6 months is 2.7% vs 1.8% in 2014 ( vs .5% CPI) and 1% in 2013 (vs 2% CPI). Specifically, private sector wage growth ex bonus rose 3.2% y/o/y vs 3.3% in July.
  9. Headline CPI in the UK turned negative again as it fell .1% both m/o/m and y/o/y. The core rate though held steady as it was up 1% y/o/y. Service inflation is running at 2.5% in the UK led by 3% rent growth.
  10. The UK unemployment rate fell another tenth to 5.4%, the lowest since June ’08 for the 3 months ended August as employment rose by 140k. The estimate was for no change. The employment to population ratio rose to the highest since records started in 1971.
  11. Positive only in the short term but tacking on even more debt for the long term, aggregate financing in China totaled 1.3T yuan in September, 100b above the estimate. That compares with 1.08T in August and 1.1T in September 2014. Bank loans made up 1.05T of the total, 150b above the forecast. Corporate bond issuance was particularly strong rising to almost 400b yuan from 288b. Money supply growth as measured by M2 was higher by 13.1% y/o/y, in line with the estimate.
  12. The Bank of Korea and Indonesia held steady with monetary policy.
  13. Chinese exports in September in US dollar terms fell 3.7% y/o/y, better than expectations of a decline of 6% as shipments to the US were up by almost 7%.
  14. Chinese foreign direct investment in September was higher by 7.1% y/o/y, about in line with the average trend seen this year.

 

Negatives:

  1. The core rate of CPI rose .2% m/o/m and 1.9% y/o/y. The cost of living for services ex energy rose 2.7% y/o/y, matching the highest level since December ’08 as Rent of Primary Residence accelerated to .4% m/o/m and 3.7% y/o/y. Medical care prices were higher by .2% m/o/m and 2.5%. Food prices were up by 1.6%.
  2. Retail sales in September missed expectations and August was revised down. Sales ex auto’s and gasoline were unchanged m/o/m instead of rising by .3% as forecasted. August was revised down by one tenth. For the so called ‘control group’ which also excludes building materials, sales fell by .1%, 4 tenths weaker than estimated and August was revised down by 2 tenths. Sales in the ‘control group’ were higher by a mediocre 2.9% y/o/y vs an average of 3.6% over the past 5 years and 4.2% over the credit fueled 30 year average.
  3. The number of job openings in August moderated to 5.37mm, about 200k less than expected and down from the record high seen in July of 5.67mm. While job openings fell by 298k, hiring only picked up by 13k. The hiring rate was unchanged as was the quit rate. The August drop in openings just gives back the July jump and puts it back to the trend seen in April thru June.
  4. The NY manufacturing index remained negative at -11.4 but a bit less so from -14.7 in September. The estimate was -8.0 and the index is below zero for a 3rd straight month. The internals softened further as new orders weakened to -18.9 (weakest since 2011) from -12.9 and backlogs fell 7 pts to -15.1. Shipments were -13.6 and employment fell to -8.5 pts. The overall outlook held at the weakest pace since January ’13.
  5. The Philly manufacturing index was -4.5, up 1.5 pts from September but 2.5 pts below the estimate. It’s negative for 2 months in a row for the 1st time since early 2013. New orders collapsed by 20 pts to -10.6, the weakest since June ’12. Backlogs fell further below zero at -11.7 vs -6.6. Employment fell by almost 12 pts to -1.7, the lowest since January. Inventories fell to a 2 ½ yr low. The 6 month outlook fell to a 5 month low and cap ex plans fell by 20 pts.
  6. Business inventory growth in August was flat m/o/m for a 2nd straight month but with a .6% drop in sales, the inventory to sales ratio rose to 1.37 from 1.36. That matches the highest level since June 2009.
  7. Applications to buy a home fell 34.1% after rising by 27.4% last week. It’s at the lowest level since February. Refi applications fell 22.5% w/o/w after spiking by 24.2% last week. This component is at a 4 week low.
  8. European exports in August fell 1.3% m/o/m while imports were up a touch on a seasonally adjusted basis.
  9. EU industrial production for the region in August fell .5% m/o/m, in line with expectations. The drop was driven by a 3% drop in energy production and a 1% fall in capital goods.
  10. The October ZEW investor expectations survey of the Germany economy fell to just 1.9 from 12.1. That was below the estimate of 6.5 and the weakest since October ’14. The Current Situation component fell to 55.2 from 67.5 and that is the lowest since March. The ZEW said “The exhaust gas scandal of Volkswagen and the weak growth of emerging markets has dampened the economic outlook for Germany. However, the performance of the domestic economy is still good and the Euro area economy continues to recover. This makes it rather unlikely that the German economy will slide into recession.”
  11. UK jobless claims in September rose 4.6k vs the estimate of down 2.2k. It’s the 2nd month in a row of gains for the 1st time since 2012.
  12. Australia unexpectedly lost jobs in September as they fell by 5.1k vs the estimate of a gain of 9.1k. The unemployment rate though held steady at 5.2% as the participation rate ticked down to 64.9% from 65%. All of the drop was for full timers as part time employees were added.
  13. Chinese imports fell 20.4% y/o/y vs the estimate of down 16% in dollar terms. This reflected soft domestic demand but also lower commodity prices. Crude volume imports rose off a 3 month low, iron ore volume imports rose to near a record high and copper volumes were up as well.
  14. September consumer confidence in Japan fell 1.1 pts to 40.6, lower than the estimate of 41.5 and remains stuck around its average year to date. The important Income Growth component still cannot gain any traction of substance as it fell .5 pt to 39.4, the lowest since April. Employment fell 1.4 pts to the 2nd lowest read of the year.

 

 

0 Follow-Ups

Peter: Succinct Summation of Week’s Events

By - - The Boock Report on July 24, 2015 12:28 PM 2 Follow-Ups Peter Initial Positives: Initial jobless claims totaled 255k, well below expectations of 278k and down from 281k last week. It is the lowest print since 1973. As auto plant shutdowns and restarts impact the seasonals in July, look only at the 4 week average which is 279k vs 283k last week and vs 279k in the w... Read More →
This is Part of a 3 part Debate on The Boock Report